Even if the conflict remains brief but intense, countries such as Sudan, Yemen, and Lebanon are expected to experience sharp rises in poverty levels.
The US–Israel war on Iran and its ripple effects across the Middle East have dealt a severe blow to Arab countries, pushing millions closer to poverty, according to the United Nations.
A report released Tuesday by the UN Development Programme (UNDP) estimates that the region’s gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink by 3.7 to 6 percent after just one month of conflict—equivalent to losses of between $120 billion and $194 billion.
Abdallah Al Dardari, UN assistant secretary-general and director of the UNDP Regional Bureau for Arab States, said the conflict could result in the loss of 3.7 million jobs, with around four million additional people pushed below the poverty line. He noted that the war has exposed the “fragility of the Arab economy.”
The report is based on projections of a “short but intense” four-week conflict, suggesting that the economic impact could be even more severe if the war continues. The fighting has already disrupted the region, with Iran targeting Gulf energy infrastructure and restricting oil and gas flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
Amid tightening oil supplies that pushed Brent crude futures up 4.7 percent to over $118 per barrel, the report warned that “risks in strategic maritime corridors” are creating ripple effects on inflation, trade flows, and global supply chains—threatening livelihoods across the Middle East’s interconnected economies.
It also noted that rising poverty levels are expected to be most severe in the Levant and in fragile states such as Sudan and Yemen, where existing vulnerabilities are high and economic shocks have a greater impact on living conditions.
Lebanon Hit Hard as War Escalation Triggers Destruction, Displacement: UN Report
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